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Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3°C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record (14.54°C)

These predictions are very relevant to businesses and policy-makers who will be able to respond to short-term climate change when making decisions today. The next decade is within many people's understanding and brings home the reality of a changing climate.

The new model incorporates the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other factors such as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the sun's output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions — the first time internal and external variability have both been predicted.

Since 1999, the Met Office team have had a network of about 3,000 buoys around the planet. These buoys monitor salinity and ocean temperature which are used by climatologists to understand climate patterns.

Most climate models do not have access to accurate current salinity and ocean temperature data, which means that they can only predict into the distant future. Using these techniques climatologists are able to account for near future climate change predictions.

Team leader, Dr Doug Smith said:
"Occurrences of El Niño, for example, have a significant effect on shorter-term predictions. By including such internal variability, we have shown a substantial improvement in predictions of surface temperature. Observed relative cooling in the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific over the last couple of years was correctly predicted by the new system, giving us greater confidence in the model's performance."

Many climate change skeptics cite the fact the climatologists use models to predict change, which they contest are not accurate.  Proving the accuracy of these models is essential not only to understand climate change, but to prepare for its effects.