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The Met Office global temperature forecast predicted that 2007 had a 60% probability of being the warmest on record, with a mean temperature 0.54 C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14 C.

David Parker, a climate variability scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre said:

?These latest Met Office figures show that the first four months of 2007 are on track with our global forecast for a warmer than average year, but the cool La Ni?a event developing in the equatorial Pacific could prevent 2007 from being the warmest-ever year.?

La Ni?a is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures (whereas El Ni?o is characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures).

Met Office figures also reveal that this spring has been the warmest since UK-wide records began in 1914. The UK mean temperature for spring 2007 was 9.0 C beating the previous record of 8.8 C set in 1945. The three spring months of March, April and May all exceeded their long-term average temperatures.

The warm UK spring follows one of the warmest recorded winters, and a run of record breaking years - the last five years are the warmest on record - and this warming trend is consistent with our predictions from the Met Office Hadley Centre.

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