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NOAA scientists are indicating extreme drought to plague areas from Southern California into western Arizona as summer approaches. Meanwhile, drought conditions in the Southeast are expected to show some improvement in the coming weeks and months.

The latest US Drought Monitor depicts severe to extreme drought in many sections across southern Georgia, Florida, eastern Mississippi into Alabama and southern Tennessee. In the Southwest, severe to extreme drought covers Southern California and much of Arizona, with the worst conditions extending from Southern California into western Arizona. Severe drought has expanded northward from the Nevada-California border into southern Oregon and Idaho.

Across the central and southern Florida Peninsula, the onset of the traditional thunderstorm season during the last half of May could lead to at least spotty drought improvements. Yet, NOAA cautions: Thunderstorms come with a price; accompanying lightning could trigger more wildfires.

For other parts of the Southeast, improvement is less certain, especially with no significant relief showing up on medium-range weather forecasts. The latest monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts show no tendency for below-normal conditions to persist past June, and historical comparisons with past spring droughts, along with summer climate patterns, suggest some reason for cautious optimism for improvement by summer's end. Although tropical weather systems can lead to fast recovery of drought, NOAA cannot speculate at this time as to where any systems will strike in coming months, so location and timing of drought relief is uncertain.

Little drought relief is expected from California into the Great Basin. ?Since the long dry season is only just beginning for California, prospects for relief are distant and may have to wait for late autumn,? said Douglas LeComte, NOAA Climate Prediction Centre drought specialist. But, Arizona could experience some relief during the monsoon season, which begins in July.

Although drought is not predicted in Alaska, large areas have been unseasonably dry and any future warm, dry weather could lead to a serious wildfire season over the interior. Also, dryness may transition to drought in Hawaii.

The origin of the drought in the Southeast dates back to July 2006. ?Although the lack of hurricanes in 2006 was welcomed, the missing storms contributed to the rainfall deficits persisting to this day,? said LeComte. In contrast, in the Southwest, near record low winter precipitation has left behind dangerously low soil moisture and a high fire danger.